Six Months Later: More Kenyans Are Warming Up to the Broad-Based Government

Six months ago, the idea of a broad-based government felt like a political shock to many Kenyans.

Today, it appears something has shifted.

According to a new survey by TIFA, public support for the broad-based government has doubled – rising from 22 per cent in May to 44 per cent in November.

It’s not overwhelming approval, but it signals a clear change in mood around one of the most controversial political arrangements in recent years.

At the same time, opposition to the arrangement has eased. Those opposed now stand at 48%, down from a high of 64% recorded in August.

That August figure came at a tense moment in the country, when memories of violent crackdowns during the June and July protests were still raw and heavily shaping public opinion.

The broad-based government took shape last year when President William Ruto launched a high-profile continental campaign backing Raila Odinga’s bid for the African Union Commission chairmanship.

What followed was unexpected: a political partnership that effectively neutralised ODM’s role as the official parliamentary Opposition.

When Odinga lost the AU race in February, the partnership deepened.

President Ruto brought several senior ODM leaders into Cabinet, with others appointed as Permanent Secretaries, ambassadors, and members of parastatal boards.

The political symbolism was reinforced by a series of presidential visits to Nyanza, where development projects were commissioned and the message of cooperation made visible.

For many Kenyans, this marked a sharp break from the familiar politics of rivalry and resistance.

TIFA’s data shows that resistance to the broad-based government peaked in August.

That period reflected a country still processing recent unrest, mistrust, and fear of shrinking political space.

But by November, the temperature had cooled. As the arrangement settled into routine governance, fewer Kenyans appeared outright hostile to it.

Instead, many seem to have moved into a space of cautious acceptance – not fully convinced, but no longer alarmed.

The survey was conducted just weeks before the death of Raila Odinga on October 15 while he was receiving medical treatment in India.

Even before his passing, there were growing internal debates within ODM about the party’s future and its position ahead of the 2027 General Election, now less than two years away.

Odinga’s death appears to have sharpened those tensions, particularly within the party and the wider Odinga family, as questions about succession and political direction grow louder.

TIFA notes that views on the broad-based government were analysed alongside responses to other political questions to measure how divisive the issue remains.

The picture that emerges is nuanced. Nearly half the country still opposes the arrangement.

But, a growing share of Kenyans appear to have accepted it as part of the political reality – whether out of pragmatism, fatigue, or a desire for stability after years of high-octane politics.

This is not a story of widespread enthusiasm. It is a story of adjustment.

As the initial shock fades and governance continues under the new arrangement, more Kenyans seem willing to live with the broad-based government, even if they are not fully sold on it.

In Kenyan politics, that shift alone is significant.