Flash Floods & Coastal Heat- Kenya Met Releases Crucial April 2026 Climate Outlook

The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has issued its weather forecast for April 2026, marking the peak of the “long rains” season. While much of the country can expect steady, near-average rainfall, the department has raised a red flag over potential flooding in the North-east and a spike in temperatures along the Coast.

Flood Risks in Arid Regions

While the Highlands both East and West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, and parts of North-western Kenya are projected to stay within their typical rainfall brackets, North-eastern Kenya is an outlier.

Marsabit, Wajir, and Mandera counties are forecast to receive above-average rainfall. Meteorologists warn that because these areas are largely arid with limited drainage infrastructure, sudden downpours could lead to hazardous localized flooding. Residents in these regions are advised to stay alert to rapid water accumulation.

Water Scarcity at the Coast

In sharp contrast, the coastal strip is facing a dry spell. Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu, and Kwale counties are expected to see below-average rainfall throughout the month. This dry trend, combined with above-average heat, has prompted the Kenya Met to urge residents and businesses in these areas to prioritize water conservation.

Late-Month Surge Expected

The outlook also warns of a possible surge in rainfall toward the end of April. This late-month peak could bring intense storms nationwide, increasing the risk of lightning and strong winds even in areas currently experiencing “near-average” conditions.

Farmers and urban residents alike are encouraged to monitor weekly updates as the country navigates the most active month of the March-April-May (MAM) season.